Still, every producer and director also wants to be the one who "breaks out big" for no apparent reason with a hit that is a critical and artistic success. The problem is, so few of those work. Recent trends--the last 5-8 years is what Hollywood looks at. But I've got a secret: they should be looking at historical mega-cycles, too. The last 80 years are really quite important as predictors of success, and those tend to get lost if you look only at recent trends.
Marketer: Some of the changes that will sweep movie making, like major motion pictures for women, are linked to macro sociological trends. As women control the money now and continue to begin to exert more power in every way in the marketplace, I think you are right that it is only obvious that women will begin to exert such control that major motion pictures will at some point in the future, be made predominantly for females. In fact, given the male-dominated studios you describe, it cries for a female-dominated studio to spring up and take them all by surprise. From that perspective it is obvious that this is beginning, and Twilight is the harbinger.
Dave: Yes, the female audience has long been under-appreciated. We saw precursors of Twilight with movies like Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, and we can even go back farther to hits like Thelma and Louise.
But if you really want to make a big splash, you have to be the first one into a pool that is big and wide and deep. When Scholastic asked me to recommend which book to push huge for the year of 1999, I told them to go with HARRY POTTER. Their marketing department thought that the book was “too long” for the middle-grade audience, and didn’t want to push it.
I argued that it was also written at a grade level that was too-high (over sixth-grade reading level, for kids who were supposed to be in the third and fourth grade). But it was fantasy, and so it catered to a child’s sense of wonder. It was about the terrors of school and growing up, and so every child would relate to it. It was written at a level so that parents and teachers—the gatekeepers for children’s books—would love it. Indeed, it was written as a family novel. So I advised them to push that book. Who writes books for whole families to enjoy together? That’s so out of date. So I saw HARRY POTTER as a “big splash” kind of book.
When Stephenie Meyer came to me in 2001 and asked “How can I become the bestselling young adult writer of all time?” I had a conundrum. Historical analysis shows that the bestselling books—like HARRY POTTER—all had male protagonists, and most were set in another world. I told Stephenie that she should write contemporary YA fantasy romance for girls. It bucked most of the trends of the past, but it did so in a way that recognized that there was this HUGE AUDIENCE that neither the book publishing world nor Hollywood even knew existed.
I also told her to make it a fantasy in a contemporary setting. In short, set it in our world, but create an “other-worldly” feel. I believe that there are a lot of readers out there who want a sense of wonder, but they’re not fully capable of enjoying novels set in other worlds. So I figured that would enlarge her audience.
Last of all, I warned her that it might be hard to sell. In 2001, young adult publishers didn’t have any YA fantasy lines. But I told her that as Harry Potter grew in size, the publishers would realize that they needed such lines.
The big question in my mind was, “Will publishers be able to embrace the idea of a book that is a romance that caters to minors?” If I tried to write such a book as a male author, I doubt that it would have seen the light of day.
So Stephenie wrote the novel, sold it big, and it became a monster hit.
In the same way, the Hunger Games movie is going to make this series huge. It combines all of the right elements in just such a way that it plays upon the burgeoning market for adventure/romances with female protagonists.
Marketer: It only seems logical that other macro-sociological changes will be predictive of future trends in blockbuster movies. For example perhaps it is formulaic that any successful blockbusters in the future will contain at least a token, non-stereotyped, male Asian, and will need to reflect every race and demographic you want the movie to appeal to worldwide, beings it will be some number of years between the inception of planning a book to the point where a movie based upon the book is released in theaters. So perhaps you can be timely in producing a blockbuster movie by examining worldwide social trends of today.
Dave: We're seeing this already--bring in the Asians and the Indians, along with the Europeans, and a movie will go big. A recent Kung Fu movie—I forget the name—has been a hit around the world because of the components of its cast.
I recognized this as a probable trend more than fifteen years ago, when I wrote the Runelords. It has Caucasians, but it also has Indians, Orientals, and a mélange of other races among the main characters. Hollywood is just beginning to wake up and recognize the potential return on multi-cultural entertainment--especially if it had a strong love story along with adventure. Avatar struck a lot of the chords right in its treatment of the “aliens,” drawing upon a lot of Asian and African influences, but still lacks something. I would have liked to have seen a more multi-cultural cast among the protagonists.
Marketer: One other minor thing is that you mentioned that big-budget movies get larger advertising budgets and therefore they are more likely to be successful. In actuality, if a movie isn't good, the more you advertise, a chain-reaction sets in that assures the bigger a failure it will become and the more it will destroy the reputation of everyone involved. So a big advertising budget will only help you if your product is good too. This is a marketing truism that as far as I know is universal. It's not exactly material to what you are saying, but it might be worth a mention that along with a big advertising budget they must have a good product or the result is career suicide.
Dave: Of course films get screened for test audiences to make sure that the film isn't a flop. Star Wars failed its screen test, so they had to go remake the ending. What's really important is to understand your demographics and then push the film or story to appeal to the audience. In short, you need to understand your audience and then create a beautiful film, one that is engrossing, emotionally nourishing, and entertaining. It’s only after you’ve done that that you should be able to go out and sell your book or movie. But by knowing this stuff, you can greatly increase the size of your potential audience, and push your sales out of the realm of the ordinary and into the realm of the fantastic.
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