Many times when a writer starts to write his or her first book or screenplay, it is because the seed of an idea takes root in his or her head and the author feels that it must come out. This is the author’s primary motivation to write. That's not a bad way to write, but unfortunately in many cases the new author will pen something that feels terribly important and profound to him or her, while the rest of the world might not respond at all. That's because so many new authors write as a type of therapy.
The new author, after two or three sales, will often find him or herself sliding back down on the sales charts, and only then will begin to wonder what it is that the rest of the world would like to see in a story. The answer to that question of course changes from reader to reader. But if you're looking to sell big, you need to do some research into what audiences like.
This is something that writers need to do for almost every story. My research process requires me to look not just at book sales, but also at popular movies and television shows—to try to get a snapshot of our culture as a whole. The reason for this is quite simple. If I write a book, there are a limited number of readers for it. For example, it has been estimated that in my own field, fantasy, there are only about two or three million regular readers out there. I can catch some of those people as they wander past my books, but if I want to go really big—say Harry Potter big—I need to do better than that. I need to create a sensation. I need to get enough publicity on morning television and radio shows so that it drives readers into the bookstore—the way that Rowling, Paolini, Meyer, and Suzanne Collins have recently have done.
In order to appeal to that wider audience, I look at several mediums and try to take some clues from them.
For example, let's take film. In order for a movie to gross $100 million at the box office, it has to draw a viewership of about 16 million people—which is much larger than the number of hardcover sales made by almost any novel. So, what can I learn from movie tastes? A few years ago I read a book on screenwriting. In it, the instructor listed the top 50 bestselling movies of all time and asked that readers look for similarities. When I reached the end of the list, the author announced that there were NO similarities. But I had found three things that they all had in common. The list changes each year, but my points will still hold true. In fact, I’ve even found a few more similarities.
Here is the current list (as of 2/2012):
1 Avatar Fox $2,782.3 $760.5 27.3% $2,021.8 72.7% 2009^
2 Titanic Par. $1,843.2 $600.8 32.6% $1,242.4 67.4% 1997^
3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,328.1 $381.0 28.7% $947.1 71.3% 2011
4 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $1,123.7 $352.4 31.4% $771.4 68.6% 2011
5 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $1,119.9 $377.8 33.7% $742.1 66.3% 2003^
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $1,066.2 $423.3 39.7% $642.9 60.3% 2006
7 Toy Story 3 BV $1,063.2 $415.0 39.0% $648.2 61.0% 2010
8 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV $1,043.9 $241.1 23.1% $802.8 76.9% 2011
9 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $1,024.3 $334.2 32.6% $690.1 67.4% 2010
10 The Dark Knight WB $1,001.9 $533.3 53.2% $468.6 46.8% 2008
Last update: Feb 2012 (For the purposes of this blog, the list has been edited to only the top ten. See David Farland’s website and sign-up for the Daily Kick for more information).
So what do these films have in common? Here are a few things:
Movies set in another time and or another place: 98%.
This tells us that movies that take us away from the real world and transport us into an alternate reality are far more popular than those set within a contemporary setting.
Movies with wide audience potential (Male&Female): 100%.
Most of these movies have strong protagonists of both sexes and of various ages. Thus they draw in a much wider audience than, say, a teen chick flick. However, the main story focus is almost always on a relatively young male—anywhere from a child to a man in his early twenties. I hate that statistic, but I can’t ignore it.
Movies with high emotional Richter-scale values: 100%.
The movies here tend to tug on the heart-strings. Very often they achieve this by placing an entire "world" in jeopardy. But sometimes, as in Home Alone or Forrest Gump, the movie focuses on one very likable protagonist—then puts him or her through hell.
Movies with heroic main plot: 98%.
Almost every movie on the list focuses on someone who is trying to save others.
Fantasy or SF: 94%.
Since I write fantasy I'd like to point out that fantasy movies have been topping the bestseller lists for decades. It's time that the studios take notice!
Alternate World: 80%.
Most of these movies that have done well have been set in an alternate world, not in our world.
So, as a writer, what can you learn from these points? Well, if you're trying to write a bestseller, this information might be something of a treasure map, pointing you in some likely directions. A real analysis of bestsellers will need to take us much deeper—into not just noticing what works, but understanding why it works, and how the studios “make it work.”
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